H.4.1 weekly monitor · Wednesday levelsReserve levels in the US banking system
Fed total assets less the Treasury General Account and overnight reverse repo — the net liquidity that actually reaches bank reserves, with four rules flagging anomalies automatically.
All dollar figures are in units of USD 100 million (1 = $100M).
- Data through
- 2026-09-16
- Next update
- 週四 22:00 UTC
- Coverage
- 2026-01 – 2026-09 (37 weeks)
- Units
- USD 100M / bp
This week
Clearly tightening
draining fast — watch reserve ampleness
−1,000−200+200+1,000
- Clearly tightening
- Mildly tightening
- Broadly flat
- Mildly easing
- Clearly easing
Net liquidity
57,495USD 100M
−1,470 / wk
Anomaly signals
R1
Reserve squeeze risk
TGA up 1,480 without a matching ON RRP release (+49)
TGA up 1,480 without a matching ON RRP release (+49)
- 4-week change
- −595
- SOFR − IORB
- −3 bp
- ON RRP balance
- 54
- SPX same week
- −1.11%
- NDX same week
- −1.62%
01Key facts
The whole page in one block. Figures are filled from this week’s data.
- Definition
- Net liquidity = Federal Reserve total assets (WALCL) − Treasury General Account (TGA) − overnight reverse repo (ON RRP). All dollar figures are in units of USD 100 million (1 = $100M).
- Latest reading
- As of 2026-09-16, net liquidity was 57,495 (USD 100M), a change of −1,470 from the prior week.
- Components
- WALCL 67,465, TGA 9,917, ON RRP 53.75 (USD 100M).
- Short rates
- SOFR 3.62%, IORB 3.65%, spread −3 bp.
- Anomaly signals
- R1 Reserve squeeze risk
- Sample
- 37 Wednesday observations starting 2026-01-07.
- Update cadence
- Once a week, automatically, after the Federal Reserve publishes H.4.1 on Thursday US Eastern time.
- Sources
- Federal Reserve H.4.1; FRED (WALCL, WDTGAL, IORB); Federal Reserve Bank of New York (ON RRP operations, SOFR).
02Net liquidity vs. equities
WALCL − TGA − ON RRP · index · USD 100M · SPX weekly %
Net liquidity and the S&P 500 since the start of the year (2026-01-07 = 100)
Net liquidityS&P 500
How to read: a line’s height is its change since the base week — at 2026-09-16, S&P 500 +9.1%, net liquidity −0.6%. These are two separate paths, not a correlation; for whether they move together, see the r values below.
Net liquidity, week-over-week change (USD 100M)
S&P 500 same-week return (Wednesday close to Wednesday close, %)
| Comparison | r | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Same week · SPX | +0.04 | Weekly net-liquidity change vs. same-week SPX return |
| One week lead · SPX | −0.04 | This week’s change vs. next week’s SPX return |
| 4-week window · SPX | −0.20 | 4-week change vs. 4-week SPX return |
| Same week · NDX | +0.03 | Weekly net-liquidity change vs. same-week NDX return |
Note: Across 36 observed weeks in 2026, all four correlations sit near zero — weekly changes in net liquidity do not explain same-week or next-week index returns
03The three components
independent scales
Fed total assets
WALCL
67,465+59USD 100M
Treasury General Account
TGA · WDTGAL
9,917+1,480USD 100M
Overnight reverse repo
ON RRP
54+49USD 100M
04SOFR − IORB spread
basis points · positive = repo market bidding up
Spread positive (funding tight)Spread negative (reserves ample)±5 bp watch band
05Anomaly rule check
1 of 4 fired this week
R1● Fired
Reserve squeeze risk
TGA rises more than USD 50bn without a matching ON RRP drawdown
TGA +1,480 · ON RRP +49
R2○ Clear
Funding stress alert
SOFR−IORB flips positive, or widens more than 5 bp in one week
Spread −3 bp · change −2 bp
R3○ Clear
Liquidity drain trend
Net liquidity falls two weeks running
1 consecutive week(s) down
R4○ Clear
Cash pool draining fast
ON RRP falls more than 20% of the prior balance in one week
ON RRP +1,144% (from a base of 4)
Week checked 2026-09-16
06Weekly detail
click a header to sort · drag edges to resize
37 weeks · click a header to sort
Anomaly signals |
|---|
R1 Reserve squeeze riskR2 Funding stress alertR3 Liquidity drain trendR4 Cash pool draining fast
07Frequently asked questions
How the numbers are built, where they come from, and what this page can and cannot tell you.
What is net liquidity and how is it calculated?
- Net liquidity subtracts the two accounts that lock cash out of the banking system from the size of the Federal Reserve balance sheet: the Treasury General Account (TGA) and overnight reverse repo (ON RRP). The formula is WALCL − TGA − ON RRP. The intuition: Fed asset purchases push reserves into banks, while tax receipts flowing into the TGA and money-market cash parked at the ON RRP facility pull them back out. All three series are aligned to the same Wednesday so that different publication frequencies do not shift the arithmetic.
How often is the data updated, and where does it come from?
- Weekly. The Federal Reserve publishes the H.4.1 release on Thursday afternoon US Eastern time, and this site fetches and recomputes shortly afterwards. WALCL, TGA (WDTGAL) and IORB come from FRED at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; ON RRP operation amounts and SOFR come from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York public APIs. The underlying series is published as JSON at /data/liquidity.json.
What does the SOFR − IORB spread mean?
- IORB is the rate the Federal Reserve pays banks on reserve balances, and it normally sits at the top of the short-rate range, so the secured overnight rate SOFR should trade below it. When SOFR flips from below IORB to above, or widens sharply within a single week, it usually means demand for secured funding is outrunning supply — an early sign that reserves are no longer abundant. The spread is shown here in basis points.
What are the four anomaly rules?
- R1: the TGA rises by more than $50 billion in one week without a matching decline in ON RRP, meaning Treasury issuance is draining bank reserves directly. R2: the SOFR − IORB spread flips from negative to positive, or widens by more than 5 basis points in one week. R3: net liquidity falls for two consecutive weeks. R4: ON RRP drops by more than 20% of the prior week’s balance. All four are evaluated automatically against the latest week, and weeks that trigger a rule are flagged in the table.
How strongly is net liquidity related to equity returns?
- The site computes and publishes sample correlations between weekly changes in net liquidity and weekly S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 returns — same week, one-week lead, and four-week cumulative. On the sample so far, the same-week correlation is close to zero and the four-week figure is weak. The numbers are shown on the page, so readers can judge for themselves; this site treats them as background conditions rather than a timing signal.
Is this an official site, or investment advice?
- Neither. It is a personal project with no affiliation to the Federal Reserve, the US Treasury or any government agency, and it is not an official distribution channel. Always verify figures against the original releases. The page is a data monitoring tool and does not constitute investment advice.